- What are the most important themes you have learned?
This week I learned more about the Anthropocene, a term I first heard a few weeks ago in one of the Adaptation to climate change seminar series. I learned that the Earliest evidence of anthropogenic impact included prehistoric flint workings at Grime's Graves at around 3000-2000 BC.
Also calculated my individual carbon footprint as 2.51 tonnes (Home, 0.61 tonnes; Appliances 1.74 tonnes; Travel 0.16 tonnes) which was less than I anticipated.
The course has reinforced what I have learned about climate change from other sources. Probably the most important theme is ocean acidification, something I knew little about - What aspect(s) did you find difficult?
Nothing this week caused me much difficulty.
Again, I found nothing during the course that was really difficult. I don't find writing particularly easy but I found that using blogger was relatively straightforward. Might even encourage me to blog on other topics. - What did you find most interesting? And why?
Both this week and throughout the course I have found the presentation of the course material excellent! Perhaps most interesting were the weekly feedback sessions which were similar to university tutorials. I also enjoyed reading and participating in the discussions with other students. - Was there something that you learned that prompted you to do your own research?
I am very interested in the Arctic and was prompted to look at Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice after I heard it mentioned in a seminar I attended. I also looked at Calving on tidewater glaciers amplified by submarine frontal melting.
I contacted Anglia Ruskin University regarding the building I used as an example and received a useful reply from them. - Are there any web sites or other online resource that you found
particularly useful in furthering your knowledge and understanding?
I keep an eye on the National Snow & Ice Data Center to follow the progress of the Arctic Death Spiral.
I had the good fortune to attend the seminar series mentioned above. The materials from the seminars are available here.
Saturday 8 March 2014
Week 8 Reflection
Friday 28 February 2014
Week 7 Reflection
Really interesting week. As someone who has had a low energy renovation on my home I was particularly interested in the buildings chosen for their design by fellow students. I spent ages going through the discussion entries for that section. There were plenty I would like to visit but that would not be good for my carbon footprint!
One that I particularly liked was the Chilterns Gateway Centre suggested by Greg Baker. That one should be near enough to visit.
I only saw the Channel4 "Restoration Man" programme episode on Thrum Mill by chance. Very impressive what can be done with a relatively modest amount of money and huge amounts of effort and dedication! Always good to see such an interesting building given a new lease of life.
Attended the last of the Adaptation to climate change seminar series by Professor Charlie Kennel. You may listen to Prof Kennel's lectures and access the teaching material here. This last seminar summarised the earlier seminars and went on to discuss how “Knowledge Action Networks” comprising international experts and local decision‐makers can foster informed and timely decisions at the regional and local levels. I feel extremely privileged living in Cambridge where I am able to attend such seminars at no cost and even have a free drink or two afterwards with some very interesting and distinguished audience members.
This week's major frustration was not being able to present my photographs of my building design example on a map using geotags. I took the pictures, manually added approximate geotags to the pictures using geotag, set up a flickr account, uploaded the pictures but still couldn't get it to use the geotags embedded in the EXIF to do anything useful! I did finally get a map created with a single geotag for all eleven pictures.
One that I particularly liked was the Chilterns Gateway Centre suggested by Greg Baker. That one should be near enough to visit.
I only saw the Channel4 "Restoration Man" programme episode on Thrum Mill by chance. Very impressive what can be done with a relatively modest amount of money and huge amounts of effort and dedication! Always good to see such an interesting building given a new lease of life.
Attended the last of the Adaptation to climate change seminar series by Professor Charlie Kennel. You may listen to Prof Kennel's lectures and access the teaching material here. This last seminar summarised the earlier seminars and went on to discuss how “Knowledge Action Networks” comprising international experts and local decision‐makers can foster informed and timely decisions at the regional and local levels. I feel extremely privileged living in Cambridge where I am able to attend such seminars at no cost and even have a free drink or two afterwards with some very interesting and distinguished audience members.
This week's major frustration was not being able to present my photographs of my building design example on a map using geotags. I took the pictures, manually added approximate geotags to the pictures using geotag, set up a flickr account, uploaded the pictures but still couldn't get it to use the geotags embedded in the EXIF to do anything useful! I did finally get a map created with a single geotag for all eleven pictures.
Tuesday 25 February 2014
Week 7 - Building design near you
My choice of building and urban landscape near me is Anglia Ruskin University, Young Street, Cambridge, just a short distance along New Street from my house. Phase 1 is almost ready for use and I have had the opportunity to see the site developed.
There are two parts to the current stage of the development: the newly built Health Building; and a Victorian primary school, known as the Ragged School, which has been renovated to form the Music Therapy Centre.
Features of note on the Health Building are the chimney-like structures which act as (passive?) ventilation stacks; the smaller, non-opening, windows on the north side to reduce heat loss and limit road noise from New Street; the brise soleil (louvres) on the south side to reduce direct sunlight but still take full advantage of natural light; and, just about visible, solar photovoltaic panels on the roof angled to improve energy collection.
Note that the brise soleil only cover the upper part of the south side of the Health Building. The next phase will be another building that will shade the lower part.
The Music Therapy Centre is an excellent example of the renovation of an older building. Many of the original external features have been retained. New double-glazing is in keeping with the style of the building and there appears to be secondary glazing on some windows which should improve both thermal and acoustic performance. The stepped entrance has been replaced with an access-friendly ramp and handrails.
I think that heating of both buildings is by gas. There is a large gas main entering The Ragged School and I have seen exhaust or condensate coming from the nearest of the stacks to my house which has an extra dimple on top.
There is no car parking on site but there is parking for around 250 bicycles. Staff and students will be expected to use walking, bikes or public transport.
One tiny criticism is that there are lights set at pavement level shining vertically up through the outside 'V' of each od the pair of ventilation stacks. This seems an unnecessary waste of energy and a source of light pollution.
Even though I took all my pictures from public space around the building I received attention from a member of Anglia Ruskin University security staff! I explained that it was for a personal project but he didn't seem convinced. Take care when taking pictures.
There are two parts to the current stage of the development: the newly built Health Building; and a Victorian primary school, known as the Ragged School, which has been renovated to form the Music Therapy Centre.
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| Health Building from New Street |
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| Health Building from New Street |
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| Health Building from St. Matthew's Street |
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| Health Building from Young Street |
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| Music Therapy Centre from Young Street |
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| Music Therapy Centre from Young Street |
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| Solar PV just visible over the roof of Brunswick Nursery School |
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| Close up of brise soleil on south side of Health Building |
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| Dormer window and roof lights on Music Therapy Centre |
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| Long shot from outside my front door |
Note that the brise soleil only cover the upper part of the south side of the Health Building. The next phase will be another building that will shade the lower part.
The Music Therapy Centre is an excellent example of the renovation of an older building. Many of the original external features have been retained. New double-glazing is in keeping with the style of the building and there appears to be secondary glazing on some windows which should improve both thermal and acoustic performance. The stepped entrance has been replaced with an access-friendly ramp and handrails.
I think that heating of both buildings is by gas. There is a large gas main entering The Ragged School and I have seen exhaust or condensate coming from the nearest of the stacks to my house which has an extra dimple on top.
There is no car parking on site but there is parking for around 250 bicycles. Staff and students will be expected to use walking, bikes or public transport.
One tiny criticism is that there are lights set at pavement level shining vertically up through the outside 'V' of each od the pair of ventilation stacks. This seems an unnecessary waste of energy and a source of light pollution.
Even though I took all my pictures from public space around the building I received attention from a member of Anglia Ruskin University security staff! I explained that it was for a personal project but he didn't seem convinced. Take care when taking pictures.
Friday 21 February 2014
Week 6 Reflection
Interesting to learn that some fungal species are moving to the higher latitudes at around three kilometres per year. Can't help wondering what happens to fungal species that are specific to particular trees? Fungal spores can move large distances on the wind but it takes a lot longer for trees to move into a new area and grow to maturity.
Who is to speak for the unloved or unknown fungi? Perhaps we need the fungal equivalent of the Ugly Animal Preservation Society?
Attended the penultimate seminar of the Adaptation to climate change seminar series entitled California and the Arctic. Professor Peter Wadhams was in the audience which lead to a very interesting questions and answers session at the end of the seminar.
Of particular interest was a just published paper, Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice. It reports that albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice [was] considerably larger than expectations from models and recent less direct estimates. Averaged globally, this albedo change is equivalent to 25% of the direct forcing from carbon dioxide during the past 30 years. Also learnt that the US Navy has detailed mapping data of Arctic sea ice thickness which was collected to identify suitable missile launch areas!
Interesting to contrast the problems of drought, wild fires, and water shortages in California with the flooding in the UK. It was surprising to learn that the Hoover Dam which creates Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States in maximum water capacity, could within a few years drop to the point where it could not generate electricity.
Who is to speak for the unloved or unknown fungi? Perhaps we need the fungal equivalent of the Ugly Animal Preservation Society?
Attended the penultimate seminar of the Adaptation to climate change seminar series entitled California and the Arctic. Professor Peter Wadhams was in the audience which lead to a very interesting questions and answers session at the end of the seminar.
Of particular interest was a just published paper, Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice. It reports that albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice [was] considerably larger than expectations from models and recent less direct estimates. Averaged globally, this albedo change is equivalent to 25% of the direct forcing from carbon dioxide during the past 30 years. Also learnt that the US Navy has detailed mapping data of Arctic sea ice thickness which was collected to identify suitable missile launch areas!
Interesting to contrast the problems of drought, wild fires, and water shortages in California with the flooding in the UK. It was surprising to learn that the Hoover Dam which creates Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States in maximum water capacity, could within a few years drop to the point where it could not generate electricity.
Friday 14 February 2014
Week 5 Reflection
I learnt more about the mechanisms behind ocean acidification. It would have been useful if I had studied more chemistry!
It's always good to see the Devon seaside in the fine summer weather. I have many happy memories of family holidays at my grandmother's in Honiton and visits to places like Exmouth, Budleigh Salterton, Sidmouth, Beer and Lyme Regis. I studied at Exeter University and it's been fun trying to spot places I remember in the background like the arboretum.
Attended the latest in the Adaption to climate change seminar series on Thursday evening entitled Sea Level Rise, Coastal Cities, and Wetlands. It was useful when thinking about the questions about sea level rise in this week's session. Professor Charlie Kennel is a very interesting speaker and I think there are plans to use the seminar series as the basis of a MOOC. The Centre for Science and Policy exists to promoting engagement between researchers and policy professionals. Unfortunately, speaking to other attendees over drinks afterwards I think all of them were from a science background. The politicians and policy professionals who really need to understand about climate change didn't appear to be there.
Back in the 1970s I worked for the Water Data Unit, part of the Department of the Environment. While there I worked with Terry Marsh, one of the authors of The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK (February 2014). I am very sad and disappointed at the poor treatment of the professionals at the Environment Agency as reported in Floods: Environment Agency frontline staff hit by cuts, whistleblowers reveal.
It's very disappointing that many politicians and media commentators seem unaware of resources such as the Science Media Centre and and their briefings on Expert reaction to continued flooding.
It's always good to see the Devon seaside in the fine summer weather. I have many happy memories of family holidays at my grandmother's in Honiton and visits to places like Exmouth, Budleigh Salterton, Sidmouth, Beer and Lyme Regis. I studied at Exeter University and it's been fun trying to spot places I remember in the background like the arboretum.
Attended the latest in the Adaption to climate change seminar series on Thursday evening entitled Sea Level Rise, Coastal Cities, and Wetlands. It was useful when thinking about the questions about sea level rise in this week's session. Professor Charlie Kennel is a very interesting speaker and I think there are plans to use the seminar series as the basis of a MOOC. The Centre for Science and Policy exists to promoting engagement between researchers and policy professionals. Unfortunately, speaking to other attendees over drinks afterwards I think all of them were from a science background. The politicians and policy professionals who really need to understand about climate change didn't appear to be there.
Back in the 1970s I worked for the Water Data Unit, part of the Department of the Environment. While there I worked with Terry Marsh, one of the authors of The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK (February 2014). I am very sad and disappointed at the poor treatment of the professionals at the Environment Agency as reported in Floods: Environment Agency frontline staff hit by cuts, whistleblowers reveal.
It's very disappointing that many politicians and media commentators seem unaware of resources such as the Science Media Centre and and their briefings on Expert reaction to continued flooding.
Week 5 - The impact of ocean acidification
Will marine organisms be able to adapt to ocean acidification given the time scale for the predicted changes?
Adaptation to changing conditions is by evolution where those most able to withstand the changes will tend to survive. This takes many generations so organisms with short life cycles (bacteria and other micro organisms) can adapt faster than longer lived organisms such as fish and mammals.
The rapid pace of ocean acidification may mean that some organisms go extinct because they cannot adapt quickly enough.
Not all organisms are equally affected by ocean acidification. Those without shells or similar structures requiring calcium may not be directly affected. Others might even benefit from greater acidity or the lack of competition from those affected.
The changes may be felt throughout the food chain as changes in prey populations affect their predators.
The marine environment is already under threat from other man-made problems such as overfishing and pollution including plastics. Ocean acidification is another driver towards mass extinctions.
I think it was a talk I attended by The Black Fish UK where the audience was asked about major marine predators. Apparently, one of them is the domestic chicken as they are largely fed on fishmeal!
For more information on plastic pollution see Plastic Soup Foundation and Beat the Microbead.
Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is likely to lead to sea level rise. Are rising sea levels more of a threat to humanity than ocean acidification?
Very difficult to decide. Both will have negative effects but the sections of the humanity affected may be different.
Those in low lying developing countries such as the Pacific island nations, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Egypt and others will be the first to feel the effects of sea level rise. Even in the developed countries most of the population lives within 100 km of the coast, many of them in cities. Some of the wealthy cities (New York, London, Venice) may be able to build expensive flood prevention schemes but even these may only delay the inevitable flooding from major sea level rises. Flooding, especially, salt water inundation, will be a threat to land grown food production.
We depend on the survival of some marine organisms which take in carbon dioxide and produce oxygen. Anything that damages this process will have an effect on the atmosphere and may result in a further increase in greenhouse gases. Many coastal communities depend on the sea for their food and changes in the marine environment may reduce that food supply.
Adaptation to changing conditions is by evolution where those most able to withstand the changes will tend to survive. This takes many generations so organisms with short life cycles (bacteria and other micro organisms) can adapt faster than longer lived organisms such as fish and mammals.
The rapid pace of ocean acidification may mean that some organisms go extinct because they cannot adapt quickly enough.
Not all organisms are equally affected by ocean acidification. Those without shells or similar structures requiring calcium may not be directly affected. Others might even benefit from greater acidity or the lack of competition from those affected.
The changes may be felt throughout the food chain as changes in prey populations affect their predators.
The marine environment is already under threat from other man-made problems such as overfishing and pollution including plastics. Ocean acidification is another driver towards mass extinctions.
I think it was a talk I attended by The Black Fish UK where the audience was asked about major marine predators. Apparently, one of them is the domestic chicken as they are largely fed on fishmeal!
For more information on plastic pollution see Plastic Soup Foundation and Beat the Microbead.
Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is likely to lead to sea level rise. Are rising sea levels more of a threat to humanity than ocean acidification?
Very difficult to decide. Both will have negative effects but the sections of the humanity affected may be different.
Those in low lying developing countries such as the Pacific island nations, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Egypt and others will be the first to feel the effects of sea level rise. Even in the developed countries most of the population lives within 100 km of the coast, many of them in cities. Some of the wealthy cities (New York, London, Venice) may be able to build expensive flood prevention schemes but even these may only delay the inevitable flooding from major sea level rises. Flooding, especially, salt water inundation, will be a threat to land grown food production.
We depend on the survival of some marine organisms which take in carbon dioxide and produce oxygen. Anything that damages this process will have an effect on the atmosphere and may result in a further increase in greenhouse gases. Many coastal communities depend on the sea for their food and changes in the marine environment may reduce that food supply.
Thursday 13 February 2014
Week 5 - Calving events
I remember watching the largest glacier calving ever filmed in Chasing Ice. There is a clip from The Guardian that identifies it as the Ilulissat glacier although it appears to be the Jakobshavn Isbræ. It is an excellent film as is Thin Ice.
The recent paper by M. O’Leary and P. Christoffersen, Calving on tidewater glaciers amplified by submarine frontal melting, they use a finite-element model of stresses near the front of a tidewater glacier to investigate the effects of frontal melting on calving. They refer to earlier modelling studies which focused largely on the effects of basal and surface melting.
Solar and atmospheric warming are likely to increase surface melting. Melt water that reaches the base of the glacier will increase melting there and by increasing lubrication increase the speed of the glacier. This will cause calving to increase.
Increasing sea water temperature could increase undercutting of the ice front due to frontal melting considerably increasing the calving rate.
As the glacier calving front retreats the fjord topography may change which could also affect calving rate if the length of the calving front changes.
My thoughts are that the key controlling processes are basal, frontal and surface melting and that the length of the calving front will also have an impact.
The recent paper by M. O’Leary and P. Christoffersen, Calving on tidewater glaciers amplified by submarine frontal melting, they use a finite-element model of stresses near the front of a tidewater glacier to investigate the effects of frontal melting on calving. They refer to earlier modelling studies which focused largely on the effects of basal and surface melting.
Solar and atmospheric warming are likely to increase surface melting. Melt water that reaches the base of the glacier will increase melting there and by increasing lubrication increase the speed of the glacier. This will cause calving to increase.
Increasing sea water temperature could increase undercutting of the ice front due to frontal melting considerably increasing the calving rate.
As the glacier calving front retreats the fjord topography may change which could also affect calving rate if the length of the calving front changes.
My thoughts are that the key controlling processes are basal, frontal and surface melting and that the length of the calving front will also have an impact.
Saturday 8 February 2014
Week 4 Reflection
The more I study climate change the more I appreciate just how complex the subject area is! I find it very frustrating that much of the mass media coverage is so biased and unscientific.
The Ship Tracks South of Alaska were fascinating! Interesting to think that these tracks would disappear if diesel ships were replaced by modern sailing ships.
I'm interested in the climate effects of particulates. It appears that they can me involved as nucleation "seeds" for cloud brightening and sulphate particulates can be involved in global dimming.
Particulate air pollution is a significant heath hazard as reported in The Mortality Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution in the United Kingdom. One of the conclusions of this paper is:
Didn't attend any other climate related talks in Cambridge this week. Looking forward to the next in the Adaptation to climate change seminar series on Sea Level Rise, Coastal Cities, and Wetlands on Thursday.
The Ship Tracks South of Alaska were fascinating! Interesting to think that these tracks would disappear if diesel ships were replaced by modern sailing ships.
I'm interested in the climate effects of particulates. It appears that they can me involved as nucleation "seeds" for cloud brightening and sulphate particulates can be involved in global dimming.
Particulate air pollution is a significant heath hazard as reported in The Mortality Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution in the United Kingdom. One of the conclusions of this paper is:
Removing all anthropogenic (‘human-made’) particulate matter air pollution (measured as PM2.5) could save the UK population approximately 36.5 million life years over the next 100 years and would be associated with an increase in UK life expectancy from birth, i.e. on average across new births, of six months. This shows the public health importance of taking measures to reduce air pollution.So some particulates can have beneficial effects high in the atmosphere but are a health hazard nearer the ground.
Didn't attend any other climate related talks in Cambridge this week. Looking forward to the next in the Adaptation to climate change seminar series on Sea Level Rise, Coastal Cities, and Wetlands on Thursday.
Week 4 - Should we geoengineer our climate?
Professor Jim Haywood defined geoengineering as using technology to control the climate. It is our use of technology that is the driver of climate change so by using the name geoengineering we are suggesting that it can become an engineering discipline and that we can exert control over the climate.
So the question is less about whether we should continue to modify the climate in an uncontrolled manner and more about how we attempt to rectify the damage done in a controlled manner.
The Technical Summary of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2013) in Box TS.7 | Climate Geoengineering Methods is not optimistic about Carbon Dioxide Reduction (CDR) where it states The level of confidence on the effectiveness of CDR methods and their side effects on carbon and other biogeochemical cycles is low. Regarding Solar Radiation Management (SRM) it states There is medium confidence that SRM through stratospheric aerosol injection is scalable to counter the RF [Radiative Forcing] and some of the climate effects expected from a twofold increase in carbon dioxide concentration.
I have mixed feelings about geoengineering. If you have the good fortune to live on a planet with a climate sufficiently stable to support the development of civilization it makes a lot of sense not to act in a way that damages that stability! The damage has now been done and it is far from clear how (or even if) it can be repaired and whether geoengineering will be a blessing or a curse.
So the question is less about whether we should continue to modify the climate in an uncontrolled manner and more about how we attempt to rectify the damage done in a controlled manner.
The Technical Summary of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2013) in Box TS.7 | Climate Geoengineering Methods is not optimistic about Carbon Dioxide Reduction (CDR) where it states The level of confidence on the effectiveness of CDR methods and their side effects on carbon and other biogeochemical cycles is low. Regarding Solar Radiation Management (SRM) it states There is medium confidence that SRM through stratospheric aerosol injection is scalable to counter the RF [Radiative Forcing] and some of the climate effects expected from a twofold increase in carbon dioxide concentration.
I have mixed feelings about geoengineering. If you have the good fortune to live on a planet with a climate sufficiently stable to support the development of civilization it makes a lot of sense not to act in a way that damages that stability! The damage has now been done and it is far from clear how (or even if) it can be repaired and whether geoengineering will be a blessing or a curse.
Week 4 - IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
The two page IPCC press release that summarises the Fifth Assessment Report (2013) makes grim reading. However, I wonder if the full impact is appreciated by those with limited appreciation of science? In the UK many politicians in senior roles have low levels of scientific education.
When sat in a heated and air conditioned office a gradual change to the thermostat of a couple degrees C might not even be noticed. Similarly, an average annual sea level rise of around 17mm doesn't sound particularly worrying.
UK Secretary of State for the Environment, Owen Paterson,from his comments on the BBC Radio 4 programme 'Any Questions?' on 7 June 2013 appears to be a believer in many of the arguments put forward by climate change deniers. It is perhaps no surprise that his Department plans major major spending cuts on climate change initiatives.
No surprise that David Rose reporting in Mail on Sunday reported on a leaked copy of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report with the headline World's top climate scientists confess: Global warming is just QUARTER what we thought - and computers got the effects of greenhouse gases wrong. It also states Scientists accept their computers may have exaggerated as if the computers had minds of their own! A graph is labelled with The catastrophic errors: how 36 of 38 most important climate computers forecast doom that never was.
James Delingpole (who is right about everything) wrote in The Telegraph under the headline 95 per cent of intelligent people know the new IPCC report is utter drivel. No surprises that he states that global warming has paused for 15 years; that climate sensitivity appears to be far smaller than the scaremongering computer models predicted a common but misleading argument explained in The global temperature jigsaw.
Fortunately, Nick Collins, a Science Correspondent for The Telegraph produced a better balanced news report under the headline IPCC report: global warming is 'unequivocal' although someone, presumably a sub-editor, decided that unequivocal in the headline needed quotes.
The Guardian has a special section under Environment dedicated to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is a reliable source of news.
The Executive Summary in Chapter 9 - Evaluation of Climate Models states The ability of climate models to simulate surface temperature has improved in many, though not all, important aspects relative to the generation of models assessed in the AR4. There continues to be very high confidence that models reproduce observed large-scale mean surface temperature patterns (pattern correlation of ~0.99), though systematic errors of several degrees are found in some regions, particularly over high topography, near the ice edge in the North Atlantic, and over regions of ocean upwelling near the equator.
FAQ 9.1 in Chapter 9 - Evaluation of Climate Models states So, yes, climate models are getting better, and we can demonstrate this with quantitative performance metrics based on historical observations.
Broadly speaking, climate models are getting better and recent change in global temperatures reflect the predictions of climate models for almost all regions.
When sat in a heated and air conditioned office a gradual change to the thermostat of a couple degrees C might not even be noticed. Similarly, an average annual sea level rise of around 17mm doesn't sound particularly worrying.
UK Secretary of State for the Environment, Owen Paterson,from his comments on the BBC Radio 4 programme 'Any Questions?' on 7 June 2013 appears to be a believer in many of the arguments put forward by climate change deniers. It is perhaps no surprise that his Department plans major major spending cuts on climate change initiatives.
No surprise that David Rose reporting in Mail on Sunday reported on a leaked copy of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report with the headline World's top climate scientists confess: Global warming is just QUARTER what we thought - and computers got the effects of greenhouse gases wrong. It also states Scientists accept their computers may have exaggerated as if the computers had minds of their own! A graph is labelled with The catastrophic errors: how 36 of 38 most important climate computers forecast doom that never was.
James Delingpole (who is right about everything) wrote in The Telegraph under the headline 95 per cent of intelligent people know the new IPCC report is utter drivel. No surprises that he states that global warming has paused for 15 years; that climate sensitivity appears to be far smaller than the scaremongering computer models predicted a common but misleading argument explained in The global temperature jigsaw.
Fortunately, Nick Collins, a Science Correspondent for The Telegraph produced a better balanced news report under the headline IPCC report: global warming is 'unequivocal' although someone, presumably a sub-editor, decided that unequivocal in the headline needed quotes.
The Guardian has a special section under Environment dedicated to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is a reliable source of news.
The Executive Summary in Chapter 9 - Evaluation of Climate Models states The ability of climate models to simulate surface temperature has improved in many, though not all, important aspects relative to the generation of models assessed in the AR4. There continues to be very high confidence that models reproduce observed large-scale mean surface temperature patterns (pattern correlation of ~0.99), though systematic errors of several degrees are found in some regions, particularly over high topography, near the ice edge in the North Atlantic, and over regions of ocean upwelling near the equator.
FAQ 9.1 in Chapter 9 - Evaluation of Climate Models states So, yes, climate models are getting better, and we can demonstrate this with quantitative performance metrics based on historical observations.
Broadly speaking, climate models are getting better and recent change in global temperatures reflect the predictions of climate models for almost all regions.
Week 4 - Run your own climate model
Set up BOINC on my home workstation (Intel Xeon CPU E3-1275 V2 @ 3.50GHz (8 processors)) running openSUSE 13.1 and added the climateprediction.net project.
Interesting to note that my account had credit which I think came from participating in BBC Climate Change Experiment which was associated with the documentary Climate Change - Britain under Threat broadcast in January 2007.
Interesting to note that my account had credit which I think came from participating in BBC Climate Change Experiment which was associated with the documentary Climate Change - Britain under Threat broadcast in January 2007.
Friday 7 February 2014
Week 4 - How much more will Earth warm?
The Ship Tracks South of Alaska were fascinating! I was aware that exhausts from aircraft could have an effect on cloud formation but I hadn't considered that ship exhausts could have a similar effect. Small particles are nucleation seeds which lead to the formation of brighter clouds.
It seems likely that particulate pollution from motor vehicles, especially diesel exhausts, may have similar effects.
It seems likely that particulate pollution from motor vehicles, especially diesel exhausts, may have similar effects.
Thursday 30 January 2014
Week 3 Reflections
I answered Q5 Why is the Arctic experiencing the largest warming on Earth? correctly but I feel it is something of a simplification. The loss of sea ice is clearly a driver of what Prof. Peter Wadhams refers to as the Arctic ice death spiral. However, something must kick-start the process that results in the initial loss of sea ice.
The recent paper The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification (Screen & Simmonds 2010) which I found via Skeptical Science goes into more detail. The full paper is available here.
In the past, I had the good fortune to hear a talk about sea ice by Prof. Grae Worster. Unfortunately, I forget the details but there is a great deal of complexity in something as simple as the freezing of salty water! There is a paper here and here is the remarkable 'Brinicle' ice finger of death filmed in Antarctic http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/15835017.
I attended two talks on climate change this week: "Climate Change and Migration", Alex Randall, Climate Outreach Information Network and and the third in the Adaptation to climate change seminar series by Professor Charlie F Kennel. The latter referred to http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/files/pr196.pdf. Short Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) were discussed as a short term adaptation strategy and to refresh the stale climate dialogue centred on carbon.
The recent paper The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification (Screen & Simmonds 2010) which I found via Skeptical Science goes into more detail. The full paper is available here.
In the past, I had the good fortune to hear a talk about sea ice by Prof. Grae Worster. Unfortunately, I forget the details but there is a great deal of complexity in something as simple as the freezing of salty water! There is a paper here and here is the remarkable 'Brinicle' ice finger of death filmed in Antarctic http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/15835017.
I attended two talks on climate change this week: "Climate Change and Migration", Alex Randall, Climate Outreach Information Network and and the third in the Adaptation to climate change seminar series by Professor Charlie F Kennel. The latter referred to http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/files/pr196.pdf. Short Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) were discussed as a short term adaptation strategy and to refresh the stale climate dialogue centred on carbon.
Week 3 - Global carbon emissions
My chose countries were: China; United Kingdom (home); United States; India (lower middle income); Qatar (rich); Maldives (Pacific island nation); and Congo, Dem. Rep. (poor).
Estimates for rich and poor countries used data from Wikipedia.
Here's my graph.
Here's the same countries showing carbon dioxide per capita on this graph.
The second graph shows the massive differences between the richest and poorest countries. There is a slight drop in the United States and the United Kingdom, possibly as a result of the recession or the transfer of manufacturing to China which shows a steady rise.
However, the per capita results don't show the inequalities within countries. As inequalities grow, as in the United Kingdom, it is likely that the individual carbon dioxide emissions of the poorest will be reducing as they struggle to balance bills for heating and eating while the lifestyles of the richest will result in higher emissions.
Estimates for rich and poor countries used data from Wikipedia.
Here's my graph.
Here's the same countries showing carbon dioxide per capita on this graph.
The second graph shows the massive differences between the richest and poorest countries. There is a slight drop in the United States and the United Kingdom, possibly as a result of the recession or the transfer of manufacturing to China which shows a steady rise.
However, the per capita results don't show the inequalities within countries. As inequalities grow, as in the United Kingdom, it is likely that the individual carbon dioxide emissions of the poorest will be reducing as they struggle to balance bills for heating and eating while the lifestyles of the richest will result in higher emissions.
Tuesday 28 January 2014
Week 3 - Urgent Action
I live in Cambridge, about 70Km from the sea and my house is just over 10m above sea level. Most of the fenland between my house and the sea is much lower.
The most recent example of an extreme weather event near me was the winter storm of 5 December 2013 when a combination of low atmospheric pressure, high tides and strong winds caused a major storm surge in the North Sea. Fortunately, I was not directly affected. Such storms can impact road, rail and electrical power distribution in addition to flood damage.
Another potential extreme weather event would be a prolonged summer heat wave like the one in 2003 which caused over 14,000 heat related deaths. Very few homes in the UK have air conditioning and are unprepared for such conditions.
The most recent example of an extreme weather event near me was the winter storm of 5 December 2013 when a combination of low atmospheric pressure, high tides and strong winds caused a major storm surge in the North Sea. Fortunately, I was not directly affected. Such storms can impact road, rail and electrical power distribution in addition to flood damage.
Another potential extreme weather event would be a prolonged summer heat wave like the one in 2003 which caused over 14,000 heat related deaths. Very few homes in the UK have air conditioning and are unprepared for such conditions.
Week 3 - Your warming world
My country is the UK.
For temperature, the mean model and almost all of the individual models the future projection for 2050-2074 is several degrees higher than the observations for every month.
For precipitation there is not such a strong agreement among the models. The mean model future projections are for similar or higher values in winter months and lower values for summer months.
As I live in East Anglia an area with limited natural water supplies and high demand from agriculture lower precipitation in summer could cause water supply problems.
The places that have experienced the largest warming from 1980-2004 are the high northern latitudes, particularly northern Russia and the Arctic.
Using Svalbard as an example there is a variability of around three degrees in observed temperatures during the winter months dropping to around one degree during the summer months.
Again, using Svalbard as an example there is low variability on the precipitation observations, typically plus or minus 0.1mm per day on a total of 0.9mm to 1.7mm per day.
So from the above, it appears that areas that are experiencing the most warming also showing large variability in temperature but not in precipitation.
For temperature, the mean model and almost all of the individual models the future projection for 2050-2074 is several degrees higher than the observations for every month.
For precipitation there is not such a strong agreement among the models. The mean model future projections are for similar or higher values in winter months and lower values for summer months.
As I live in East Anglia an area with limited natural water supplies and high demand from agriculture lower precipitation in summer could cause water supply problems.
The places that have experienced the largest warming from 1980-2004 are the high northern latitudes, particularly northern Russia and the Arctic.
Using Svalbard as an example there is a variability of around three degrees in observed temperatures during the winter months dropping to around one degree during the summer months.
Again, using Svalbard as an example there is low variability on the precipitation observations, typically plus or minus 0.1mm per day on a total of 0.9mm to 1.7mm per day.
So from the above, it appears that areas that are experiencing the most warming also showing large variability in temperature but not in precipitation.
Monday 27 January 2014
Week 3 - State of the climate: extreme events
I live in Cambridge, in the UK, so my nearest major climate event for 2012 was described as After experiencing dry conditions during the first three months of the year, the remainder of the year was wet, resulting in the second wettest year on record, behind 2000.
These lecture notes from the University of St. Andrews explain how warmer air can hold more water.
The UK is a collection of islands off the eastern coast of Europe. Depending on wind conditions its weather can be influenced by the Atlantic ocean or continental Europe. Hot dry winds from the east can result in drought. Warm wet winds from the west can product heavy rainfall in western areas especially where the air rises over hills and mountains.
It is difficult to like a single extreme event to climate change. However, if a trend is observed over decades then that strongly suggests that there may be a connection.
Unlike the Arctic which a frozen sea of ice formed from salt water, Antarctica is a continent covered with fresh water ice from precipitation which spreads out as ice sheets over the surrounding oceans. There are two key measures of sea ice: extent and volume.
For extent if the area covered by ice exceeds a threshold (typically 15 percent) it is counted towards the extent otherwise it is excluded. This is relatively easy to measure from satellite or aircraft photographs.
Sea ice volume also requires ice depth information. Modern satellites such as The ESA CryoSat 2 can measure sea ice (and land ice) volume.
The paper Satellite observations of Antarctic sea ice thickness and volume discusses the period 2003-2008 and observes that Sea ice thickness exhibits a small negative trend while area increases in the summer and fall balanced losses in thickness leading to small overall volume changes.
The web page Antarctica's ice loss on the rise discusses the three years from 2010 and observes the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing over 150 cubic kilometres of ice each year. This includes ice beyond the grounding lines which is floating on the sea.
The suggested web page Press Release: Arctic sea ice shatters previous low records; Antarctic sea ices edges to record high suggests that the Antarctic changes are due more to wind than warmth.
It is possible that the increased Antarctic ice extent could be due to wider distribution of thinner ice and could still represent a loss of sea ice volume.
These lecture notes from the University of St. Andrews explain how warmer air can hold more water.
The UK is a collection of islands off the eastern coast of Europe. Depending on wind conditions its weather can be influenced by the Atlantic ocean or continental Europe. Hot dry winds from the east can result in drought. Warm wet winds from the west can product heavy rainfall in western areas especially where the air rises over hills and mountains.
It is difficult to like a single extreme event to climate change. However, if a trend is observed over decades then that strongly suggests that there may be a connection.
Unlike the Arctic which a frozen sea of ice formed from salt water, Antarctica is a continent covered with fresh water ice from precipitation which spreads out as ice sheets over the surrounding oceans. There are two key measures of sea ice: extent and volume.
For extent if the area covered by ice exceeds a threshold (typically 15 percent) it is counted towards the extent otherwise it is excluded. This is relatively easy to measure from satellite or aircraft photographs.
Sea ice volume also requires ice depth information. Modern satellites such as The ESA CryoSat 2 can measure sea ice (and land ice) volume.
The paper Satellite observations of Antarctic sea ice thickness and volume discusses the period 2003-2008 and observes that Sea ice thickness exhibits a small negative trend while area increases in the summer and fall balanced losses in thickness leading to small overall volume changes.
The web page Antarctica's ice loss on the rise discusses the three years from 2010 and observes the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing over 150 cubic kilometres of ice each year. This includes ice beyond the grounding lines which is floating on the sea.
The suggested web page Press Release: Arctic sea ice shatters previous low records; Antarctic sea ices edges to record high suggests that the Antarctic changes are due more to wind than warmth.
It is possible that the increased Antarctic ice extent could be due to wider distribution of thinner ice and could still represent a loss of sea ice volume.
Saturday 25 January 2014
Week 2 - End of Week Reflections
This week I have come to appreciate the complexity of the climate system with its many feedbacks both positive and negative. In particular, the influence of the Earth's orbit around the Sun.
The most difficult part was Section 2.6 on 400 parts per million. I'm still not entirely clear what forced the rise in carbon dioxide in the mid-Pliocene. Was it just the orbital changes driving up temperature? Clearly lots of different processes interacting ...
Not exactly further research but I did attend the second in the Adaptation to Climate Change Seminar Series organised by the Centre for Science and Policy. Although both the course and the seminar series are aimed at a general audience their focus is different. As the title suggests, the seminar series is more narrowly focused on adaptation. Thursday evening's seminar mentioned the U.S. Global Change Reseach Program which might be in interesting source of information.
A couple of interesting observations from the seminar: A temperature increase of between 1.75 C and 2.75 C by 2050 is predicted by all the climate models; and the rate of climate change will double over the next 20 years.
The first seminar had pointed out that even in the highly unlikely event that no more man made greenhouse gases were emitted the levels of the oceans will continue to rise for at least a thousand years.
The most difficult part was Section 2.6 on 400 parts per million. I'm still not entirely clear what forced the rise in carbon dioxide in the mid-Pliocene. Was it just the orbital changes driving up temperature? Clearly lots of different processes interacting ...
Not exactly further research but I did attend the second in the Adaptation to Climate Change Seminar Series organised by the Centre for Science and Policy. Although both the course and the seminar series are aimed at a general audience their focus is different. As the title suggests, the seminar series is more narrowly focused on adaptation. Thursday evening's seminar mentioned the U.S. Global Change Reseach Program which might be in interesting source of information.
A couple of interesting observations from the seminar: A temperature increase of between 1.75 C and 2.75 C by 2050 is predicted by all the climate models; and the rate of climate change will double over the next 20 years.
The first seminar had pointed out that even in the highly unlikely event that no more man made greenhouse gases were emitted the levels of the oceans will continue to rise for at least a thousand years.
Thursday 23 January 2014
Tuesday 21 January 2014
Week 2 Reflections
What are climate change records?
Climate change records come from many sources. David Parker's Youtube video describes many of them. One that surprised me was data collected from oil wells: "Depth profiles of temperature in oil-drilling boreholes can be used to
estimate the changes in air temperature over recent centuries".
Another interesting source of climate data is the Argo project, an array of around 3,000 profiling floats that provide observations
from the global ocean. These float measure temperature, pressure and salinity from the surface down to 2000 metres. When the float resurfaces it transmits its data to satellites which also determine its position.
How do volcanoes affect climate change?
The air around us contains all manner of small particles and liquid droplets. These are known as aerosols. The bulk of aerosols are from natural sources, some of which is ash from volcanic eruptions.
Volcanic eruptions can affect the climate in three ways: the ozone effect; the greenhouse effect; and the haze effect. Satellite data has confirmed that major vocanic eruptions, such as Mount Pinatubo, can cause short term ozone depletion in the atmosphere. Volcanic eruptions can enhance global warming by adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. The haze effect that results in global cooling is mainly caused by sulphur rich gases from the eruptions combining with water vapour in the stratosphere to create sulphuric acid droplets which absorb solar radiation and scatter it back to space.
How is today’s warming different from the past?
The main difference is that current climatic warming is occurring much more quickly than in the past. The Earth is predicted to warm by between 2 and 6 degrees Celsius in the next century which is at least 20 times faster than found in the past.
What is the role of isotopes in determining temperatures from the past?
Oxygen exists in two stable isotopes and the ratio of these found in calcium carbonate from the shells of creatures found in rock formations can be used to estimate the temperature of the ocean when the shells were created. The same effect can be observed in oxygen found in ice cores. More details can be found here.
How have trees been used to reconstruct different climate variables across the world?
Dendrochronology is the science that uses tree rings dated to their exact year of formation to analyse processes in the physical world. For example, a broad tree ring would indicate a year of good growth and a narrow one a less favourable year. This can be applied to the study of the present climate and to reconstruct past climates. More details can be found here.
How can ice cores provide a record of atmospheric composition?
Air bubbles trapped in ice cores can provide a record of past atmospheric composition. More details can be found here.
Sunday 19 January 2014
Week 1 Reflection
I was caught out by the question on greenhouse gases. Should have known that ozone was one of them.
The presentation using the blanket analogy rather than the greenhouse one was interesting.
Also interesting to compare the style of this MOOC with another I am studying on https://iversity.org/courses/public-privacy-cyber-security-and-human-rights.
On Thursday evening I went to the first of a series of six seminars http://www.csap.cam.ac.uk/events/Adaptation-to-climate-change-seminar-series/. It will be interesting to compare this with the course. The introductory seminar covered the history development of the science of climate change.
The presentation using the blanket analogy rather than the greenhouse one was interesting.
Also interesting to compare the style of this MOOC with another I am studying on https://iversity.org/courses/public-privacy-cyber-security-and-human-rights.
On Thursday evening I went to the first of a series of six seminars http://www.csap.cam.ac.uk/events/Adaptation-to-climate-change-seminar-series/. It will be interesting to compare this with the course. The introductory seminar covered the history development of the science of climate change.
Monday 13 January 2014
And so it begins ...
This is my blog to accompany the free course on 'Climate Change: challenges and solutions'.
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Pliocene Role in Assessing Future Climate Impacts "The middle part of the Pliocene epoch, approximately 3.3–3.0 million years ago [was] about 2–3 C warmer globally on average than today". It also states that "the mid-Pliocene was similar to today in terms of the positions of the continents and oceans and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, but global warmth was distributed differently".
Although similar in many ways to today, the sea levels were 25 metres higher and there was less ice sheets and glaciers. The orbital movements were different, being dominated by obliquity rather than eccentricity. This resulted in higher temperatures warming high latitude oceans driving ice-albedo feedback. Maybe these changes had an impact on the flora and fauna causing less carbon to be transported from the atmosphere through the hydrosphere to be stored in the
lithosphere?