Tuesday 28 January 2014

Week 3 - Your warming world

My country is the UK.

For temperature, the mean model and almost all of the individual models the future projection for 2050-2074 is several degrees higher than the observations for every month.

For precipitation there is not such a strong agreement among the models. The mean model future projections are for similar or higher values in winter months and lower values for summer months.

As I live in East Anglia an area with limited natural water supplies and high demand from agriculture lower precipitation in summer could cause water supply problems.

The places that have experienced the largest warming from 1980-2004 are the high northern latitudes, particularly northern Russia and the Arctic.

Using Svalbard as an example there is a variability of around three degrees in observed temperatures during the winter months dropping to around one degree during the summer months.

Again, using Svalbard as an example there is low variability on the precipitation observations, typically plus or minus 0.1mm per day on a total of 0.9mm to 1.7mm per day.

So from the above, it appears that areas that are experiencing the most warming also showing large variability in temperature but not in precipitation.


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