Friday 28 February 2014

Week 7 Reflection

Really interesting week.  As someone who has had a low energy renovation on my home I was particularly interested in the buildings chosen for their design by fellow students.  I spent ages going through the discussion entries for that section.  There were plenty I would like to visit but that would not be good for my carbon footprint!

One that I particularly liked was the Chilterns Gateway Centre suggested by Greg Baker.  That one should be near enough to visit.

I only saw the Channel4 "Restoration Man" programme episode on Thrum Mill by chance.  Very impressive what can be done with a relatively modest amount of money and huge amounts of effort and dedication!  Always good to see such an interesting building given a new lease of life.

Attended the last of the Adaptation to climate change seminar series by Professor Charlie Kennel.  You may listen to Prof Kennel's lectures and access the teaching material here.  This last seminar summarised the earlier seminars and went on to discuss how “Knowledge Action Networks” comprising international experts and local decision‐makers can foster informed and timely decisions at the regional and local levels. I feel extremely privileged living in Cambridge where I am able to attend such seminars at no cost and even have a free drink or two afterwards with some very interesting and distinguished audience members.

This week's major frustration was not being able to present my photographs of my building design example on a map using geotags.  I took the pictures, manually added approximate geotags to the pictures using geotag, set up a flickr account, uploaded the pictures but still couldn't get it to use the geotags embedded in the EXIF to do anything useful!  I did finally get a map created with a single geotag for all eleven pictures.

Tuesday 25 February 2014

Week 7 - Building design near you

My choice of building and urban landscape near me is Anglia Ruskin University, Young Street, Cambridge, just a short distance along New Street from my house.  Phase 1 is almost ready for use and I have had the opportunity to see the site developed.

There are two parts to the current stage of the development: the newly built Health Building; and a Victorian primary school, known as the Ragged School, which has been renovated to form the Music Therapy Centre.

Health Building from New Street

Health Building from New Street

Health Building from St. Matthew's Street

Health Building from Young Street

Music Therapy Centre from Young Street

Music Therapy Centre from Young Street

Solar PV just visible over the roof of Brunswick Nursery School

Close up of brise soleil on south side of Health Building


Dormer window and roof lights on Music Therapy Centre

Long shot from outside my front door
Features of note on the Health Building are the chimney-like structures which act as (passive?) ventilation stacks; the smaller, non-opening, windows on the north side to reduce heat loss and limit road noise from New Street; the brise soleil (louvres) on the south side to reduce direct sunlight but still take full advantage of natural light; and, just about visible, solar photovoltaic panels on the roof angled to improve energy collection.

Note that the brise soleil only cover the upper part of the south side of the Health Building. The next phase will be another building that will shade the lower part.

The Music Therapy Centre is an excellent example of the renovation of an older building.  Many of the original external features have been retained.  New double-glazing is in keeping with the style of the building and there appears to be secondary glazing on some windows which should improve both thermal and acoustic performance.  The stepped entrance has been replaced with an access-friendly ramp and handrails.

I think that heating of both buildings is by gas.  There is a large gas main entering The Ragged School and I have seen exhaust or condensate coming from the nearest of the stacks to my house which has an extra dimple on top.

There is no car parking on site but there is parking for around 250 bicycles.  Staff and students will be expected to use walking, bikes or public transport.

One tiny criticism is that there are lights set at pavement level shining vertically up through the outside 'V' of each od the pair of ventilation stacks.  This seems an unnecessary waste of energy and a source of light pollution.

Even though I took all my pictures from public space around the building I received attention from a member of Anglia Ruskin University security staff!  I explained that it was for a personal project but he didn't seem convinced.  Take care when taking pictures.

Friday 21 February 2014

Week 6 Reflection

Interesting to learn that some fungal species are moving to the higher latitudes at around three kilometres per year.  Can't help wondering what happens to fungal species that are specific to particular trees?  Fungal spores can move large distances on the wind but it takes a lot longer for trees to move into a new area and grow to maturity.

Who is to speak for the unloved or unknown fungi?  Perhaps we need the fungal equivalent of the Ugly Animal Preservation Society?

Attended the penultimate seminar of the Adaptation to climate change seminar series entitled California and the ArcticProfessor Peter Wadhams was in the audience which lead to a very interesting questions and answers session at the end of the seminar.

Of particular interest was a just published paper, Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice.  It reports that albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice [was] considerably larger than expectations from models and recent less direct estimates.  Averaged globally, this albedo change is equivalent to 25% of the direct forcing from carbon dioxide during the past 30 years.  Also learnt that the US Navy has detailed mapping data of Arctic sea ice thickness which was collected to identify suitable missile launch areas!

Interesting to contrast the problems of drought, wild fires, and water shortages in California with the flooding in the UK.  It was surprising to learn that the Hoover Dam which creates Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States in maximum water capacity, could within a few years drop to the point where it could not generate electricity.

Friday 14 February 2014

Week 5 Reflection

I learnt more about the mechanisms behind ocean acidification.  It would have been useful if I had studied more chemistry!

It's always good to see the Devon seaside in the fine summer weather.  I have many happy memories of family holidays at my grandmother's in Honiton and visits to places like Exmouth, Budleigh Salterton, Sidmouth, Beer and Lyme Regis.  I studied at Exeter University and it's been fun trying to spot places I remember in the background like the arboretum.

Attended the latest in the Adaption to climate change seminar series on Thursday evening entitled Sea Level Rise, Coastal Cities, and Wetlands. It was useful when thinking about the questions about sea level rise in this week's session.  Professor Charlie Kennel is a very interesting speaker and I think there are plans to use the seminar series as the basis of a MOOC.  The Centre for Science and Policy exists to promoting engagement between researchers and policy professionals. Unfortunately, speaking to other attendees over drinks afterwards I think all of them were from a science background.  The politicians and policy professionals who really need to understand about climate change didn't appear to be there.

Back in the 1970s I worked for the Water Data Unit, part of the Department of the Environment.  While there I worked with Terry Marsh, one of the authors of The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK (February 2014).  I am very sad and disappointed at the poor treatment of the professionals at the Environment Agency as reported in Floods: Environment Agency frontline staff hit by cuts, whistleblowers reveal.

It's very disappointing that many politicians and media commentators seem unaware of resources such as the Science Media Centre and and their briefings on Expert reaction to continued flooding.

Week 5 - The impact of ocean acidification

Will marine organisms be able to adapt to ocean acidification given the time scale for the predicted changes?

Adaptation to changing conditions is by evolution where those most able to withstand the changes will tend to survive.  This takes many generations so organisms with short life cycles (bacteria and other micro organisms) can adapt faster than longer lived organisms such as fish and mammals.

The rapid pace of ocean acidification may mean that some organisms go extinct because they cannot adapt quickly enough.

Not all organisms are equally affected by ocean acidification.  Those without shells or similar structures requiring calcium may not be directly affected.  Others might even benefit from greater acidity or the lack of competition from those affected.

The changes may be felt throughout the food chain as changes in prey populations affect their predators.

The marine environment is already under threat from other man-made problems such as overfishing and pollution including plastics.  Ocean acidification is another driver towards mass extinctions.

I think it was a talk I attended by The Black Fish UK where the audience was asked about major marine predators.  Apparently, one of them is the domestic chicken as they are largely fed on fishmeal!

For more information on plastic pollution see Plastic Soup Foundation and Beat the Microbead.


Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is likely to lead to sea level rise. Are rising sea levels more of a threat to humanity than ocean acidification?

Very difficult to decide.  Both will have negative effects but the sections of the humanity affected may be different.

Those in low lying developing countries such as the Pacific island nations, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Egypt and others will be the first to feel the effects of sea level rise.  Even in the developed countries most of the population lives within 100 km of the coast, many of them in cities.  Some of the wealthy cities (New York, London, Venice) may be able to build expensive flood prevention schemes but even these may only delay the inevitable flooding from major sea level rises.  Flooding, especially, salt water inundation, will be a threat to land grown food production.

We depend on the survival of some marine organisms which take in carbon dioxide and produce oxygen.  Anything that damages this process will have an effect on the atmosphere and may result in a further increase in greenhouse gases.  Many coastal communities depend on the sea for their food and changes in the marine environment may reduce that food supply.


Thursday 13 February 2014

Week 5 - Calving events

I remember watching the largest glacier calving ever filmed in Chasing Ice. There is a clip from The Guardian that identifies it as the Ilulissat glacier although it appears to be the Jakobshavn Isbræ. It is an excellent film as is Thin Ice.

The recent paper by M. O’Leary and P. Christoffersen, Calving on tidewater glaciers amplified by submarine frontal melting, they use a finite-element model of stresses near the front of a tidewater glacier to investigate the effects of frontal melting on calving. They refer to earlier modelling studies which focused largely on the effects of basal and surface melting.

Solar and atmospheric warming are likely to increase surface melting.  Melt water that reaches the base of the glacier will increase melting there and by increasing lubrication increase the speed of the glacier.  This will cause calving to increase.

Increasing sea water temperature could increase undercutting of the ice front due to frontal melting considerably increasing the calving rate.

As the glacier calving front retreats the fjord topography may change which could also affect calving rate if the length of the calving front changes.

My thoughts are that the key controlling processes are basal, frontal and surface melting and that the length of the calving front will also have an impact.

Saturday 8 February 2014

Week 4 Reflection

The more I study climate change the more I appreciate just how complex the subject area is! I find it very frustrating that much of the mass media coverage is so biased and unscientific.

The Ship Tracks South of Alaska were fascinating! Interesting to think that these tracks would disappear if diesel ships were replaced by modern sailing ships.

I'm interested in the climate effects of particulates. It appears that they can me involved as nucleation "seeds" for cloud brightening and sulphate particulates can be involved in global dimming.

Particulate air pollution is a significant heath hazard as reported in The Mortality Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution in the United Kingdom. One of the conclusions of this paper is:
Removing all anthropogenic (‘human-made’) particulate matter air pollution (measured as PM2.5) could save the UK population approximately 36.5 million life years over the next 100 years and would be associated with an increase in UK life expectancy from birth, i.e. on average across new births, of six months. This shows the public health importance of taking measures to reduce air pollution.
So some particulates can have beneficial effects high in the atmosphere but are a health hazard nearer the ground.

Didn't attend any other climate related talks in Cambridge this week. Looking forward to the next in the Adaptation to climate change seminar series on Sea Level Rise, Coastal Cities, and Wetlands on Thursday.



Week 4 - Should we geoengineer our climate?

Professor Jim Haywood defined geoengineering as using technology to control the climate. It is our use of technology that is the driver of climate change so by using the name geoengineering we are suggesting that it can become an engineering discipline and that we can exert control over the climate.

So the question is less about whether we should continue to modify the climate in an uncontrolled manner and more about how we attempt to rectify the damage done in a controlled manner.

The Technical Summary of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2013) in Box TS.7 | Climate Geoengineering Methods is not optimistic about Carbon Dioxide Reduction (CDR) where it states The level of confidence on the effectiveness of CDR methods and their side effects on carbon and other biogeochemical cycles is low. Regarding Solar Radiation Management (SRM) it states There is medium confidence that SRM through stratospheric aerosol injection is scalable to counter the RF [Radiative Forcing] and some of the climate effects expected from a twofold increase in carbon dioxide concentration.

I have mixed feelings about geoengineering. If you have the good fortune to live on a planet with a climate sufficiently stable to support the development of civilization it makes a lot of sense not to act in a way that damages that stability! The damage has now been done and it is far from clear how (or even if) it can be repaired and whether geoengineering will be a blessing or a curse.

Week 4 - IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

The two page IPCC press release that summarises the Fifth Assessment Report (2013) makes grim reading. However, I wonder if the full impact is appreciated by those with limited appreciation of science? In the UK many politicians in senior roles have low levels of scientific education.

When sat in a heated and air conditioned office a gradual change to the thermostat of a couple degrees C might not even be noticed. Similarly, an average annual sea level rise of around 17mm doesn't sound particularly worrying.

UK Secretary of State for the Environment, Owen Paterson,from his comments on the BBC Radio 4 programme 'Any Questions?' on 7 June 2013 appears to be a believer in many of the arguments put forward by climate change deniers. It is perhaps no surprise that his Department plans major major spending cuts on climate change initiatives.

No surprise that David Rose reporting in Mail on Sunday reported on a leaked copy of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report with the headline World's top climate scientists confess: Global warming is just QUARTER what we thought - and computers got the effects of greenhouse gases wrong. It also states Scientists accept their computers may have exaggerated as if the computers had minds of their own! A graph is labelled with The catastrophic errors: how 36 of 38 most important climate computers forecast doom that never was.

James Delingpole (who is right about everything) wrote in The Telegraph under the headline 95 per cent of intelligent people know the new IPCC report is utter drivel. No surprises that he states that global warming has paused for 15 years; that climate sensitivity appears to be far smaller than the scaremongering computer models predicted a common but misleading argument explained in The global temperature jigsaw.

Fortunately, Nick Collins, a Science Correspondent for The Telegraph produced a better balanced news report under the headline IPCC report: global warming is 'unequivocal' although someone, presumably a sub-editor, decided that unequivocal in the headline needed quotes.

The Guardian has a special section under Environment dedicated to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is a reliable source of news.

The Executive Summary in Chapter 9 - Evaluation of Climate Models states The ability of climate models to simulate surface temperature has improved in many, though not all, important aspects relative to the generation of models assessed in the AR4. There continues to be very high confidence that models reproduce observed large-scale mean surface temperature patterns (pattern correlation of ~0.99), though systematic errors of several degrees are found in some regions, particularly over high topography, near the ice edge in the North Atlantic, and over regions of ocean upwelling near the equator.

FAQ 9.1 in Chapter 9 - Evaluation of Climate Models states So, yes, climate models are getting better, and we can demonstrate this with quantitative performance metrics based on historical observations.

Broadly speaking, climate models are getting better and recent change in global temperatures reflect the predictions of climate models for almost all regions.


Week 4 - Run your own climate model

Set up BOINC on my home workstation (Intel Xeon CPU E3-1275 V2 @ 3.50GHz (8 processors)) running openSUSE 13.1 and added the climateprediction.net project.

Interesting to note that my account had credit which I think came from participating in BBC Climate Change Experiment which was associated with the documentary Climate Change - Britain under Threat broadcast in January 2007.

Friday 7 February 2014

Week 4 - How much more will Earth warm?

The Ship Tracks South of Alaska were fascinating! I was aware that exhausts from aircraft could have an effect on cloud formation but I hadn't considered that ship exhausts could have a similar effect. Small particles are nucleation seeds which lead to the formation of brighter clouds.

It seems likely that particulate pollution from motor vehicles, especially diesel exhausts, may have similar effects.